The Magic of Bayesian Methods for Missing Data

Missing data – it is almost inevitable in any dataset, and a perennial concern to anyone using that data to analyze trends or make decisions.  The frequent “head in the sand” approach, where one just deletes any observations with missing data, is convenient, but most likely not very realistic.  When data is missing, it is…

Game Theoretic Modeling of Social Capital

As someone who has lived in three major U.S. cities and one European city, I can tell you that there is wide variation in the societal fabric that holds large metropolitan areas together, or, broadly speaking, social capital.  Going along those stereotypes, San Franciscans are generally nice to everyone because who knows if you are…

A Game Theory Explanation of the Anti-Trump Movement

Recently, Mitt Romney encouraged Republican voters to not vote for their first choice candidate, but to vote for the candidate that has the best chance of beating Trump in their given state.  This suggestion prompted some outrage that the Republican establishment was telling voters how to vote.  A more precise point to make is that…

Would the threat of force have changed the Iran deal?

Several foreign policy commentators have criticized President Obama for not leveraging the US’s military muscles while negotiating the Iran deal.  New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, a man I find quite insightful even if I sometimes disagree with him, is one credible example (here and here).  But would the threat of force really have changed…